The struggle over Proposition 8, which would ban same-sex marriage in California, has tightened dramatically in the past month, with opponents holding a slim 49 to 44 percent edge among likely voters, according to a new Field Poll.
“The ‘Yes’ campaign has raised some doubts and moved people over to their side,” said Mark DiCamillo, the poll’s director. “A relatively large segment of voters are in conflict over this measure.”
Catholics, who make up nearly a quarter of likely voters, also could make a difference, DiCamillo said. Catholics opposed Prop. 8 by a 48 to 44 percent margin, but that’s down from 55 to 36 percent a month ago.
Minority groups, expected to come out strongly for Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday, could play a key role in the Prop. 8 vote. Latino voters are split almost evenly, 46 to 48 percent, on the measure, while black voters back the same-sex marriage ban, 49 to 43 percent.
In that case Andrew Sullivan’s demand that Obama speak out prominently and unequivocally against Prop 8 is entirely appropriate and clearly necessary. If the biggest factor which could guarantee Proposition 8’s failure is the turnout of Democrat voters on Tuesday, it is in my mind entirely right to expect the Democratic nominee for president to nail his colours to the wall and swing the vote against Prop 8.