No On Prop 8 in the Lead!

Good News.

The struggle over Proposition 8, which would ban same-sex marriage in California, has tightened dramatically in the past month, with opponents holding a slim 49 to 44 percent edge among likely voters, according to a new Field Poll.

“The ‘Yes’ campaign has raised some doubts and moved people over to their side,” said Mark DiCamillo, the poll’s director. “A relatively large segment of voters are in conflict over this measure.”

Catholics, who make up nearly a quarter of likely voters, also could make a difference, DiCamillo said. Catholics opposed Prop. 8 by a 48 to 44 percent margin, but that’s down from 55 to 36 percent a month ago.

Minority groups, expected to come out strongly for Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday, could play a key role in the Prop. 8 vote. Latino voters are split almost evenly, 46 to 48 percent, on the measure, while black voters back the same-sex marriage ban, 49 to 43 percent.

In that case Andrew Sullivan’s demand that Obama speak out prominently and unequivocally against Prop 8 is entirely appropriate and clearly necessary. If the biggest factor which could guarantee Proposition 8’s failure is the turnout of Democrat voters on Tuesday, it is in my mind entirely right to expect the Democratic nominee for president to nail his colours to the wall and swing the vote against Prop 8.


6 responses to “No On Prop 8 in the Lead!

  1. Won’t happen though – for all his soaring rhetoric, Obama is a cautious politician and he won’t view this as the time to take a view on this, unfortunately.

    Hopefully the No vote will come through anyway.

  2. He’s already said he’s against gay marriage Jason, so he’s not about to support it or any other proposal like it.


  4. @ Tim – he has but he hasn’t. He’s said as president he would support civil unions with the identical legal standing under the law to religious and civil marriage – replicating Britain’s civil partnerships. If that created a demand over time for gay marriage notably from civil society upward rather than the executive downward he said he’d go with that. Given that California, Massachussets and Connecticut all have marriage on equal terms for everyone it’s somewhat of an important point – even more important if Prop 8 fails.

    @ Scoobs – I think you’re right. It’s something which Bill Kristol said on The Daily Show and it’s a fair description of him. In many respects Obama remains a conventional liberal politician, and I think it’s the one big failing he’s got. The debates proved conclusively that when he spoke out of sheer conviction rather than watching the polls he got the best result. I honestly believe if he stood up to Prop 8 between now and Tuesday it would increase his national standing.

  5. Of course vote NO on PROP 8, PLEASE, but it is a sickening, disgusting vote in the first place.

    Imagine a heterosexual man sitting back peacefully as society voted on whether he, his wife, and his children deserved the rights and protections of civil marriage. What would HE think of PROP 8 in CA? Would he even THINK of opening up his wallet to fund a PR drive to gain a chance to “win” this civil right? Or would it be “Live Free or Die”?

    Yet we (the gay community), and our allies have agreed – AGREED – to hash out this “debate” with a public PROP 8 lottery (it’s not a debate…I KNOW I DESERVE MARRIAGE).

    Here’s my “NON-Debate for PROP 8” – It really doesn’t matter what others may “think” or “not think” at this point. I will not pay an organization for Human Rights, Family Rights, Civil Rights, or Constitutional Rights. I will simply refuse to file my IRS tax returns until my FAMILY is equal under the law.


  6. Soon I’ll go to vote No on Prop 8, knowing that the outcome does not matter for the course of history because in 20 years, this will no longer be an issue. The outcome will only matter for me, knowing that I did the right thing to help protect individual rights. I also now know that I was naive to believe that everybody was equal under the law, because we are not there yet.


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