Bye Bye Sarah Palin

All the relevant statistical data is saying Barack Obama won the debate, whatever else the ‘experts’ and blogosphere say.

TPM has the internals of the CNN poll of debate-watchers, which had Obama winning overall by a margin of 51-38. The poll suggests that Obama is opening up a gap on connectedness, while closing a gap on readiness.

Specifically, by a 62-32 margin, voters thought that Obama was “more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you”. This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters. Per the transcript, McCain never once mentioned the phrase “middle class” (Obama did so three times). And Obama’s eye contact was directly with the camera, i.e. the voters at home. McCain seemed to be speaking literally to the people in the room in Mississippi, but figuratively to the punditry. It is no surprise that a small majority of pundits seemed to have thought that McCain won, even when the polls indicated otherwise; the pundits were his target audience.

Even a Fox News focus group of undecided voters plumped for Obama, citing the exact same reasons:

This suggests McCain’s in deep trouble. His decision to ‘suspend’ his campaign was a disaster, the growing financial crisis isn’t playing to his advantage in any way, his temper is flaring and Sarah Palin’s interviews with Katie Couric have been lambasted by friend and foe alike as worse than risible. Even conservative commentator Kathleen Parker said:

Only Palin can save McCain, her party, and the country she loves. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

So the question has been that if McCain dumped the only selling point his campaign has ever had (or somehow pulled her back from the front line), how on earth could he win? What new stunt could his train wreck of a campaign try in order to regain media prominence? Today the hints began:

In an election campaign notable for its surprises, Sarah Palin, the Republican vice- presidential candidate, may be about to spring a new one — the wedding of her pregnant teenage daughter to her ice-hockey-playing fiancé before the November 4 election.

Inside John McCain’s campaign the expectation is growing that there will be a popularity boosting pre-election wedding in Alaska between Bristol Palin, 17, and Levi Johnston, 18, her schoolmate and father of her baby. “It would be fantastic,” said a McCain insider. “You would have every TV camera there. The entire country would be watching. It would shut down the race for a week.”

It’s about the last possible, underhanded, pointless charade of a stunt they can pull to try to take the country’s attention off the disaster that is the McCain/Palin ticket. Given that all their recent stunts have backfired, it makes you wonder how successful it really would be though. One of these videos is real, the other one is a fake. Can you tell which is which, and then tell me either way whether you think Sarah Palin is a remotely acceptable candidate for Vice President or potential President?

Vodpod videos no longer available.

My feeling is that short of a national or world disaster between now and November 4th, Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.


7 responses to “Bye Bye Sarah Palin

  1. I hope you are right about those polls because I looked around my neighborhood today and saw lots of signs for McCain and one for Obama. The ONLY redeeming feature of their winning the Whitehouse would be Tina Fey playing Palin for 4 years! Other than that, if McCain wins and The GOP have not replaced Palin, we are sooooooo

  2. Bullshit.
    I’ve proven my expertise on foreign policy every day for our country!
    And Sarah is an expert, too.

  3. Palin reminds me of a dominatrix I once had the dubious pleasure of meeting in Soho one Saturday night….

  4. Wow – they really will not stop trying to plumb new depths, will they?

    What is this – The Young and the Restless?

    A pre-election wedding? You’ve got to be fucking joking…

    What the HELL does that have to do with electing a president?

    I half hope they try it and I hope the Democrats crawl all over the airwaves condemning it as a blatant, pointless publicity stunt that is telling the voters absolutely nothing about their abilities.

    What bizarre twist will we have next?

    Amnesia? A kidnapping? An evil twin?

  5. I don’t think they’ll actually go for it. They’re sort of trapped by Bush’s declaration of imminent armageddon – if they go frivolous I don’t think calling it ‘going maverick’ will be any more successful than when McCain invoked his now fraudulent moniker during the debate. The news media, even the entertainment media (hello David Letterman) are now so unimpressed by McCain’s stunts I don’t doubt they’d frame it for what it was.

    We could yet have a McCain temper eruption of course – it was a near thing on a number of occasions on Friday night (Ahmadinejad anyone?) – in which case there’d then be nothing they could do. Or maybe Bristol Palin is the real Sarah Palin and she’ll take the VP slot from her mother who is really her grandmother in a cunning disguise.

    Enough already…

  6. Depends on how quickly the financial situation recovers and they can get away with “going frivolous”. If this bailout package passes and the markets calm down for a spell, they might get away with giving it a go.

    I think it absolutely smacks of desperation though.

    I have to say, I love Tina Fey as Sarah Palin – she is fantastic.

  7. The elitist wing of the conservative movement has always been wary of us libertarians coming into the GOP. Sarah Palin is one of the top elected libertarian Republicans in the country, (along with Idaho’s Gov. Butch Otter, and Cong. Jeff Flake of AZ).

    Of course, she’s going to make some conservatives nervous.

    They are wary of her libertarian cultural views. This is the woman, after all, who famously fought back against social conservatives in Wasilla who wanted to run all of the bars and taverns out of town.

    They even started a whisper campaign in Alaska during the 2006 primaries that Sarah wasn’t really a Republican, but rather a “closet libertarian.” She had attended a couple local Libertarian Party meetings seeking their support.

    But what she loses from the social conservatives, she gains 10 times over in libertarian votes.

    Figure, Libertarian Bob Barr was polling 6% nationwide in mid-summer. As high as 10% in New Hampshire. And post-Palin he’s now down to 1%.

    Ever since Goldwater the eastern establishment Republicans have distrusted Western cowboy individualists in the GOP.

    With Sarah Palin, the libertarian wing of the GOP has finally arrived. Of course, that’s going to make some other Republicans nervous.

    Get over it Conservatives, THE LIBERTARIANS HAVE ARRIVED!!

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