Five days to go until the American general election, and Obama is still comfortably ahead in the polls, and most crucially in the states which matter. The electoral college arithmetic means for him to lose he would need to lose bedrock states like Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Illinois, New York, oh the list is too long to mention; it also isn’t going to happen. Battleground states which are likely to decide this have him leading across the board and he retains at least five routes to the magic 270, when McCain currently has nothing at all.
It’s nice to see him on the Daily Show – McCain used to shine on that show, but it seems he no longer feels at home somewhere so liberal and un-American. Particularly good on that interview are Obama’s quips about being labelled a socialist because he’d shared his toys when in kindergarten, and his wry dismissal of the Bradley Effect. I personally think he’s quite right – not only are all polls showing the same results (both state polls and national polls-of-polls), but the likelihood of the Bradley Effect operating across the board with all white voters who have for some time been saying exactly the same thing (they want him as president) is preposterous. Obama has shrewdly taken race out of the equation as the primary lens through which he was to be viewed, and replaced it with social class. At a time when the middle class need to feel their next president is on their side, a straightforward glance at the candidates has long shown McCain lacking.
It’s also noteworthy to see that the Economist has just endorsed Obama. And why?
He has earned it
So Mr Obama in that respect is a gamble. But the same goes for Mr McCain on at least as many counts, not least the possibility of President Palin. And this cannot be another election where the choice is based merely on fear. In terms of painting a brighter future for America and the world, Mr Obama has produced the more compelling and detailed portrait. He has campaigned with more style, intelligence and discipline than his opponent. Whether he can fulfil his immense potential remains to be seen. But Mr Obama deserves the presidency.
1 response so far ↓
Scoobs // October 31, 2008 at 7:50 pm |
Obama’s numbers nationally have firmed up again after sliding a bit earlier this week, from 7% at RCP down to 5.9% but stayed there two days and now back up to 6.4%
The national trackers are vaguely interesting but not particularly relevant, but the fact that his numbers have stopped drifting down at the moment is still a good sign.
Meanwhile his numbers in the swing states still pretty firm, some tightening also but not at the sort of pace that McCain needs to be seeing, not by a long chalk. Indeed Obama gets above 270 in the electoral college if he wins all states where he is currently polling at ahead 6% or more. That doesn’t even include Ohio and Florida at this point. Things looking good with just over 3 campaign days yet to go.
I’m still bricking it though. Still feel like it could go horribly wrong somewhere.
Nearly ALL the signs point to a strong Obama win – enthusiasm, Democratic turnout in early voting, steady polling numbers….
But I still doubt it. Probably cos I believed in Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 and we’ve seen the shitstorm that ensued.
I won’t believe this until McCain has conceded sometime on election night and called off the lawyers.