So now it starts to change. Hillary could retain legitimacy as a candidate as long as she and Obama each kept attracting a relatively unchanged demographic. It seemed quite suitable for both of them (and healthy for us – they each had to keep making their case) to keep slugging it out, as long as the Republicans were doing the same. But Super Tuesday caused Mitt Romney to pull out, and even though Mike Huckabee is still in the race, he hasn’t a chance of beating McCain. So Romney, McCain and even Bush asked the party to start coalescing around McCain nice and early, to give the Republicans a chance of sneaking through a pair of worthy but battling Democrats. This was the point that I called November for McCain. Yesterday changed that – Virginia in particular.
It seems that Democratic voters are starting to understand that the more time the Republicans have to do this, the more danger there is that Hillary or Obama will be pipped to the post – in this case by a candidate with genuine appeal to their side. On Super Tuesday Hillary won more of the popular vote, but Obama won more states. And now he’s taken Maryland, Virginia and DC. In Virginia he at last started to eat heavily into her demographic. She’s far ahead of him in Ohio and Texas – states on March 4th with huge numbers of delegates, which would suit her as much as her wins in California, New York and New Jersey – but a narrative is starting to fix about him, and it’s no longer just in the media. She must win in March or she’s effectively out – she is losing the battle to paint herself as the anti-establishment underdog. It was a rushed attempt to salvage the calamity of Iowa which initially worked, as was the sheer aggression of Bill Clinton’s response. But even though said ‘establishment’ for the large part is actually favouring Obama (making this narrative perversely apt), he’s slowly succeeding now with everyone at getting to define himself as ’something new’.
He isn’t of course, and his serious weakness which I’ve identified before, is already being picked up by McCain, as it was earlier by Hillary. His rhetoric, although looking great on YouTube, and being extremely noble, isn’t enough to win a general election. It could be argued in 2004 that John Kerry was way ahead of Bush until the Presidential debates. Kerry kept making the right arguments, but didn’t convince anyone that he was a leader-in-waiting. Obama hasn’t crossed that hurdle in any way yet either. I could envisage Hillary taking McCain apart in a one-on-one debate – she’s younger, smarter and a better candidate than him in November. But Obama? ‘Yes we can’ fires up the crowds at this stage of things, but in November, against the Republican attack machine, which will do whatever it takes to stamp all over him? Anything is possible, this election has shown that. And the sheer symbolic power of a viable African American Presidential nominee could yet prove overwhelming for any Republican. But I still think that this election still isn’t anywhere near as ‘all new’ as the media are delighting in ramming down our throats. Bill’s known this all along and has been right, although his approach has often been wrong. My loyalty remains with Hillary, but with her campaign staff and fundraising fragmenting, and Obama now eating into her bedrock support, it’s slowly drifting away. An overall victory by him in two weeks could indeed give the party a chance to coalesce around him quickly and put McCain with his enduring problem of evangelicals (who hate him) and neocons (who hate him) right onto the back foot.
I’ve called November for McCain twice now. As of yesterday, I consider the general election wide open again.
3 responses so far ↓
thejabberwocky // February 13, 2008 at 10:05 am |
Oh, those were the days when our brains were tazed
Back in Twenty, Zero, Eight.
When the times were tough and the men were gruff
When they had to go on dates
It was “Clinton” this, and “Clinton that,”
And “Gosh, I think she’s smart,”
He’d just nod his head as he hoped instead
That the super bowl would start
*
As the time progressed he’d have hardly guessed
That she’d still be in the thing
But to his surprise right before his eyes
She had still not left the ring
She had just one foe who withstood her blow:
Who had come from a mixed descent
Who presumed that he, might yet somehow be,
The first black president
*
But he had no chance, for she wore the pants
From the time that it had begun
For she often basked in the questions asked,
Like the rays of a gentle sun
When her voice grew soft, then the gloves came off,
Like the trick of a clever crook
Though she used her left, she could still be deft,
With a nasty right-hand hook
*
*
Oh, those were the days when our brains were tazed
In Twenty, Zero, Eight.
When the times were tough and the men were gruff
‘When they had to go on dates
They would never squawk when their women talked,
Though by now they were awful scared,
For a silent sigh, and lowered eye,
Was the most that they ever dared!
*
*
To Little Rock in Arkansas
The dreaded Clintons came
The Southern state that once was great
Would never be the same
We loathed their guts so very much
They lost their second bid
But then they won it back again
’Cuz Rodham had a kid
*
In 92 the Clinton crew
Had bigger fish to fry
The faithful wife gave Bill his life
By standing by her guy
The Senior Bush who lacked a push
Became their only foe
Yet still they only won the race
Because of Ross Perot
*
For eight more years with lies and tears
They kept their foes in check
The crafty two knew how to brew
A storm as fierce as heck
The democrats who gave congrats
For what they did to Starr
Will change their tune so very soon
When Rodham goes too far
*
So when at last their term was passed
We hoped they’d fade away
But to our fear they made it clear
Their names were here to stay
As we rejoiced with all the boys
And drowned our hearts in booze
She took a place inside a race
She knew she could not lose
*
In old New York she went to work:
A state completely blue
Their hearts were sold, she won it cold
With plenty hull’baloo
She took the floor and with hopes to score
In front of ev’ryone
The comeback kid would make her bid
When Bush’s term was done
*
*
whydidyoudoit // February 14, 2008 at 7:52 pm |
We don’t need Ohio, Texas, D.C., Maryland, or Virginia to get to the White House. The Hillary campaign has run a hard race to the White House and we don’t intend to let Ohio or Texas or any minority states stand in our way reguardless of their vote. We have already won the big states and we intend to invoke hole heartedly the votes of Florida. We tried to win the supporters of John Edwards. Unfortunately we did not win the supporters of John Edwards, but as you can see we didn’t need them to win the big states and we will not need them in the future to win the White House. The Clinton campaign started this race as winners, favored to be in the white house because we are not trying to change the face of america nor it’s foundation our pass leaders worked so hard to establish. We know what our opponent is trying to do and we can not let this happen. America is not broken, just our leadership. Everyone in america has been treated fair for over two hundred years and if they are unhappy with their current status or the economy then I’m sure they can find pleasure in being in america. When Senator Clinton is elected president she will address all issues of concern.
cosmodaddy // February 14, 2008 at 10:58 pm |
I’ve supported Hillary throughout. But her about turn, in trying to get the Florida delegates seated at the Convention, when she’d previously agreed with their exclusion really makes her look like her detractors say she is. The attack ads starting in Wisconsin aren’t helping her case either.